Whether lease mark-to-market expansion and data center deployment pace align with full-year operating growth targets.
Company analysis · produced · reports
Read this as a demonstration of method. This analysis was produced on the date above. Its wording has not been edited since; where the filing has landed, the figures it reported were added beside the thresholds this analysis named. It is published to show how the work is structured, not as a record of predictive accuracy and not as a current view on Prologis, Inc..
Why this event matters
The October 15, 2026 earnings release is the critical checkpoint testing whether Prologis’s projected operational inflection and capital deployment acceleration are translating into sustained rent power and full-year earnings execution. Over the prior six quarters, management outlined a multi-stage market recovery transitioning from base-building occupancy to positive rent growth. In the second quarter of 2026, management declared that this inflection had fully transitioned into an expansion phase, supported by second-quarter U.S. net absorption of 66 million square feet, a 70 basis point increase in U.S. market rents, and a stabilization of the net effective lease mark-to-market at 17% (representing nearly $800 million of embedded net operating income) [transcript:FY2026-Q2].
The third-quarter release will specifically settle two operational questions left open by recent guidance revisions:
1. **Lease Mark-to-Market Trajectory and Same-Store NOI Durability:** After the lease mark-to-market halted its downward drift at 17% in the second quarter, Q3 will reveal whether rising market rents can begin re-expanding the embedded rent spread or whether portfolio rollover will compress it back toward normalized low-double-digit levels [transcript:FY2026-Q2]. This performance directly underpins management’s raised full-year 2026 guidance for net effective same-store NOI growth of 5.25% to 5.75% (and cash same-store NOI growth of 6.75% to 7.25%) and average occupancy of 95.25% to 95.75% [transcript:FY2026-Q2].
2. **Logistics Development Starts and Data Center Conversion Pace:** Having achieved $2.1 billion in data center build-to-suit starts in the first half of 2026 (matching its initial full-year target for that vertical), management raised full-year owned-and-managed development starts to a range of $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion [transcript:FY2026-Q2]. Meeting the higher guidance range requires a notable second-half acceleration in logistics starts across target global markets. Q3 results will provide the first direct measure of whether speculative and build-to-suit logistics starts have ramped to absorb that capital allocation.
In addition to core operations, the event offers the first potential operational and strategic update following the disclosure in the second quarter of a possible offer for SEGRO plc under the U.K. Takeover Code, about which management was barred from taking questions on the prior call due to regulatory restrictions [transcript:FY2026-Q2].
For profitability, the print will track progress against full-year guidance for GAAP net earnings of $4.40 to $4.55 per share and Core FFO of $6.22 to $6.30 per share [transcript:FY2026-Q2]. In the second quarter of 2026, Prologis delivered diluted EPS of $1.13 according to standardised financial data [financials:FY2026-Q2] and Core FFO of $1.63 per share (or $1.60 per share excluding net promote income) [transcript:FY2026-Q2]. (Note: Transcript sources provide management guidance and operational commentary but omit full financial tables; standardized financial data covers second-quarter balance sheet and cash flow totals).
Baseline context
Prologis operates and reports across two core functional segments—Real Estate Operations and Strategic Capital—evaluating portfolio performance on an owned and managed (O&M) basis [0001193125-26-051453]. Detailed income statement segment disaggregations were not accessible in the truncated filing excerpts, so top-line revenue, net income, cash flows, and balance-sheet figures are drawn from the consolidated balance sheets and standardized financial data, while sector-specific metrics are drawn from earnings releases and executive transcripts [0001193125-25-253512, 0001193125-26-197850, 0001193125-26-323746, financials:FY2025-Q3, financials:FY2025-Q4, financials:FY2026-Q1, financials:FY2026-Q2, transcript:FY2025-Q3, transcript:FY2025-Q4, transcript:FY2026-Q1, transcript:FY2026-Q2].
### Third Quarter 2025 (Period ended September 30, 2025)
* **Revenue and Profitability:** Total revenue was $2,213.88 million according to standardized financial data [financials:FY2025-Q3]. Net income reached $764.27 million, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.82 [financials:FY2025-Q3]. Core Funds From Operations (Core FFO) was $1.49 per share including net promote expense, and $1.50 per share excluding net promote expense [transcript:FY2025-Q3].
* **Primary Operating Metrics:** Period-end portfolio occupancy stood at 95.3% [transcript:FY2025-Q3]. Rent change on rollover reached 49.0% on a net effective basis and 29.0% on a cash basis [transcript:FY2025-Q3]. The portfolio lease mark-to-market was 19.0%, representing $900 million in embedded net operating income (NOI) [transcript:FY2025-Q3]. Same-store NOI growth was 3.9% on a net effective basis and 5.2% on a cash basis [transcript:FY2025-Q3]. Total lease signings were nearly 62 million square feet [transcript:FY2025-Q3].
* **Balance Sheet and Capital Position:** Prologis closed the period with $1,186.02 million in cash and cash equivalents, total debt of $35,302.90 million, and stockholders' equity of $52,635.54 million [0001193125-25-253512, financials:FY2025-Q3]. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $1,447.73 million [financials:FY2025-Q3]. The company closed $2.3 billion in debt financing during the period, maintaining a weighted average in-place debt cost of 3.2% with a remaining life over 8 years [transcript:FY2025-Q3].
### Fourth Quarter 2025 (Period ended December 31, 2025)
* **Revenue and Profitability:** Total revenue grew to $2,252.71 million according to standardized financial data [financials:FY2025-Q4]. Net income was $1,399.78 million, yielding diluted EPS of $1.49 [financials:FY2025-Q4]. Core FFO was $1.44 per share including net promote expense, and $1.46 per share excluding net promote expense [transcript:FY2025-Q4].
* **Primary Operating Metrics:** Owned and managed average occupancy was 95.3% for the quarter (and 95.0% for the full year 2025), ending the period at 95.8% [transcript:FY2025-Q4]. Net effective rent change was 44.0% for the quarter (over 50.0% for the full year) [transcript:FY2025-Q4]. The lease mark-to-market settled at 18.0%, representing nearly $800 million of embedded NOI [transcript:FY2025-Q4]. Same-store NOI growth was 4.7% net effective (4.8% for the full year) and 5.7% on a cash basis [transcript:FY2025-Q4]. Lease signings totaled 57 million square feet with 78.0% customer retention [transcript:FY2025-Q4].
* **Balance Sheet and Capital Deployment:** Cash and cash equivalents stood at $1,145.65 million, total debt was $35,037.07 million, and stockholders' equity was $53,193.18 million [0001193125-26-197850, financials:FY2025-Q4]. Quarterly operating cash flow was $1,158.24 million [financials:FY2025-Q4]. Capital deployment included $1.1 billion of logistics development starts (48% build-to-suit), $625 million of property acquisitions, and approximately $900 million of asset dispositions [transcript:FY2025-Q4].
### First Quarter 2026 (Period ended March 31, 2026)
* **Revenue and Profitability:** Total revenue was $2,297.72 million according to standardized financial data [financials:FY2026-Q1]. Net income totaled $981.98 million, with diluted EPS of $1.05 [financials:FY2026-Q1]. Core FFO was $1.50 per share including net promote expense, and $1.52 per share excluding net promote expense [transcript:FY2026-Q1].
* **Primary Operating Metrics:** Occupancy experienced a telegraphed seasonal decline to 95.3%, with customer retention at 76.0% [transcript:FY2026-Q1]. Net effective rent change was 32.0%, reflecting geographic roll mix [transcript:FY2026-Q1]. The lease mark-to-market was 17.0% net effective, representing ~$750 million in embedded NOI [transcript:FY2026-Q1]. Same-store NOI growth accelerated to 6.1% on a net effective basis and 8.8% on a cash basis [transcript:FY2026-Q1]. Lease signings set a record at 64 million square feet [transcript:FY2026-Q1].
* **Balance Sheet and Capital Deployment:** Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $861.14 million, total debt declined to $34,669.59 million, and stockholders' equity rose to $53,503.40 million [0001193125-26-197850, financials:FY2026-Q1]. Operating cash flow was $1,288.14 million and capital expenditures were $149.88 million [financials:FY2026-Q1]. Prologis completed $5.5 billion in total debt financings at a 3.75% weighted average rate (including a $3.0 billion credit facility recast) [transcript:FY2026-Q1]. Development starts totaled $2.1 billion ($850 million logistics, $1.3 billion across two data center build-to-suits), while asset sales and contributions totaled $1.2 billion [transcript:FY2026-Q1].
### Second Quarter 2026 (Period ended June 30, 2026)
* **Revenue and Profitability:** Total revenue expanded to $2,425.45 million according to standardized financial data—a 9.56% increase relative to Q3 2025 ($2,213.88 million) [financials:FY2025-Q3, financials:FY2026-Q2]. Net income was $1,062.19 million, producing diluted EPS of $1.13 [financials:FY2026-Q2]. Core FFO reached $1.63 per share including net promote income, and $1.60 per share excluding net promote income, supported by $83 million in promote revenue [transcript:FY2026-Q2].
* **Primary Operating Metrics:** Occupancy improved 20 basis points sequentially to 95.5% [transcript:FY2026-Q2]. Rent change on rollover reached 36.0% on a net effective basis and 22.0% on cash [transcript:FY2026-Q2]. The net effective lease mark-to-market stabilized at 17.0%, replenishing embedded NOI to nearly $800 million [transcript:FY2026-Q2]. Same-store NOI growth was 6.4% on a net effective basis and 8.5% on cash [transcript:FY2026-Q2]. Signings reached another record of 67 million square feet [transcript:FY2026-Q2].
* **Balance Sheet and Capital Deployment:** Cash and cash equivalents expanded to $1,765.04 million, total debt rose to $36,442.09 million, and stockholders' equity closed at $53,725.72 million [0001193125-26-323746, financials:FY2026-Q2]. Operating cash flow was $1,346.88 million [financials:FY2026-Q2]. The debt-to-EBITDA ratio stood at 4.7x following $3.4 billion of multicurrency financing activity [transcript:FY2026-Q2]. Capital deployment included $1.6 billion in development starts ($800 million logistics and $800 million for a 260 MW data center campus), $1.8 billion in property acquisitions, $800 million in dispositions, and $500 million in venture contributions [transcript:FY2026-Q2].
What has to go right
* **Full-year Core FFO per share delivery:** Core FFO must reach between $6.22 and $6.30 per share for full-year 2026 (both including and excluding net promote income), requiring second-half Core FFO of approximately $3.09 to $3.17 per share following the $3.13 per share delivered in the first half ($1.50 in Q1 and $1.63 in Q2) [transcript:FY2026-Q1, transcript:FY2026-Q2].
*Will the upcoming event test it?* **Yes.** The Q3 2026 release will report quarterly Core FFO and test whether full-year guidance is maintained or revised.
* **Full-year GAAP net earnings per share:** Diluted GAAP net earnings must fall within the guidance range of $4.40 to $4.55 per share for full-year 2026 [transcript:FY2026-Q2].
*Will the upcoming event test it?* **Yes.** The Q3 2026 earnings report will disclose third-quarter net income and provide the cumulative nine-month run-rate against the annual threshold.
* **Portfolio average occupancy threshold:** Average portfolio occupancy (at Prologis share) must remain within the guided band of 95.25% to 95.75% for full-year 2026, building on the 95.3% reported in Q1 and 95.5% reported in Q2 [transcript:FY2026-Q1, transcript:FY2026-Q2].
*Will the upcoming event test it?* **Yes.** The Q3 2026 print will provide both the third-quarter average occupancy figure and the period-end occupancy rate.
* **Net effective and cash same-store NOI growth:** Full-year same-store net operating income (NOI) growth must achieve 5.25% to 5.75% on a net effective basis and 6.75% to 7.25% on a cash basis for full-year 2026 [transcript:FY2026-Q2].
*Will the upcoming event test it?* **Yes.** Q3 2026 quarterly net effective and cash same-store NOI growth figures will directly test whether the portfolio sustains the necessary growth rate.
* **Lease mark-to-market and rollover rent change capture:** Net effective rent change on lease rollover must track toward management's full-year target approaching 40% (after delivering 32% in Q1 and 36% in Q2), while keeping the net effective lease mark-to-market at or near 17% (~$800 million in embedded spot NOI) [transcript:FY2026-Q1, transcript:FY2026-Q2].
*Will the upcoming event test it?* **Yes.** Q3 2026 disclosures will report quarterly rent change spreads and the updated mark-to-market percentage.
* **Owned and managed development starts:** Total development starts across logistics and data centers must reach between $5.5 billion and $6.5 billion on an owned and managed basis for full-year 2026, requiring $1.8 billion to $2.8 billion of starts in the second half of 2026 after $3.7 billion was commenced in the first half ($2.1 billion in Q1 and $1.6 billion in Q2) [transcript:FY2026-Q1, transcript:FY2026-Q2].
*Will the upcoming event test it?* **Yes.** Q3 2026 reported development start volumes will show whether warehouse and data center groundbreakings are pacing to hit the full-year target.
* **Strategic capital revenue run-rate:** Strategic capital revenue (excluding promotes) must total between $660 million and $680 million for full-year 2026, while net promote income remains flat on the full year following the $83 million promote revenue recognized in Q2 [transcript:FY2026-Q2].
*Will the upcoming event test it?* **Yes.** The Q3 2026 financial tables will disclose strategic capital fee revenue and any incremental net promote income or expense.
* **Capital recycling through dispositions and venture contributions:** Combined property contributions to co-investment ventures and third-party dispositions must achieve $4.25 billion to $5.25 billion (at Prologis share) for full-year 2026, requiring $1.75 billion to $2.75 billion in second-half activity following $2.5 billion executed in the first half ($1.2 billion in Q1 and $1.3 billion in Q2) [transcript:FY2026-Q1, transcript:FY2026-Q2].
*Will the upcoming event test it?* **Yes.** Q3 2026 proceeds from asset sales and venture contributions will be reported directly.
* **General and administrative expense control:** Full-year G&A expenses must be contained within the guided range of $510 million to $525 million for FY2026 [transcript:FY2026-Q2].
*Will the upcoming event test it?* **Yes.** Q3 2026 reported G&A expenses will reveal whether administrative overhead remains within the annual run-rate.
* **Balance sheet leverage preservation and clarity on corporate M&A:** Debt-to-EBITDA must be maintained near or below the 4.7x level reported at Q2 2026 while resolving the capital structure and financing implications of the proposed offer for SEGRO plc under the U.K. Takeover Code [transcript:FY2026-Q2].
*Will the upcoming event test it?* **Partially.** The Q3 2026 release will report balance sheet leverage, but formal regulatory disclosures regarding the SEGRO proposal depend on Takeover Code deadlines and may occur independently of the earnings print.
Bull, base, and bear
### Bull
*Accelerating rent growth and data center development starts drive Q3 Core FFO to $1.62 per share or above and lift full-year Core FFO guidance past $6.30 per share.*
* Core FFO per share (Q3 2026): at or above $1.62 per share, prompting management to raise full-year 2026 Core FFO guidance above the current $6.22 to $6.30 range [transcript:FY2026-Q2].
* Total consolidated revenue (Q3 2026): at or above $2.450 billion, extending sequential top-line expansion beyond Q2 2026's $2,425.45 million [financials:FY2026-Q2].
* Diluted GAAP net earnings per share (Q3 2026): at or above $1.15 per share, exceeding Q2 2026's $1.13 per share and positioning net earnings at the high end of full-year guidance ($4.40 to $4.55 per share) [financials:FY2026-Q2, transcript:FY2026-Q2].
* Net effective same-store NOI growth (Q3 2026): at or above 6.50%, exceeding the raised full-year guidance range of 5.25% to 5.75% [transcript:FY2026-Q2].
* Period-end portfolio occupancy (Q3 2026): at or above 95.8%, matching 2025 peak levels and outperforming the full-year average occupancy guidance band of 95.25% to 95.75% [transcript:FY2025-Q4, transcript:FY2026-Q2].
* Net effective rent change on rollover (Q3 2026): at or above 40.0%, meeting management's full-year target and expanding the net effective lease mark-to-market beyond 17% [transcript:FY2026-Q1, transcript:FY2026-Q2].
* Owned and managed development starts (Q3 2026): at or above $1.50 billion, lifting nine-month starts to at least $5.20 billion and enabling a guidance raise above $6.50 billion for the full year [transcript:FY2026-Q1, transcript:FY2026-Q2].
### Neutral
*Execution tracks guidance across all operating lines, generating Q3 Core FFO of $1.54 to $1.61 per share and confirming full-year Core FFO within $6.22 to $6.30 per share.*
* Core FFO per share (Q3 2026): $1.54 to $1.61 per share, keeping full-year Core FFO on track within the existing $6.22 to $6.30 guidance range [transcript:FY2026-Q2].
* Total consolidated revenue (Q3 2026): $2.350 billion to $2.449 billion according to standardized financial data [financials:FY2026-Q1, financials:FY2026-Q2].
* Diluted GAAP net earnings per share (Q3 2026): $1.00 to $1.14 per share, supporting full-year net earnings within the $4.40 to $4.55 per share guided band [financials:FY2026-Q1, financials:FY2026-Q2, transcript:FY2026-Q2].
* Net effective same-store NOI growth (Q3 2026): 5.25% to 6.49%, aligning with the full-year guidance range of 5.25% to 5.75% [transcript:FY2026-Q2].
* Period-end portfolio occupancy (Q3 2026): 95.4% to 95.7%, sustaining average occupancy within the guided 95.25% to 95.75% range [transcript:FY2026-Q2].
* Net effective rent change on rollover (Q3 2026): 35.0% to 39.9%, preserving the net effective lease mark-to-market at approximately 17% [transcript:FY2026-Q1, transcript:FY2026-Q2].
* Owned and managed development starts (Q3 2026): $0.90 billion to $1.49 billion, maintaining full-year development start guidance within $5.50 billion to $6.50 billion [transcript:FY2026-Q1, transcript:FY2026-Q2].
### Bear
*Logistics demand softens and rent spreads stall, pulling Q3 Core FFO to $1.53 per share or below and forcing full-year Core FFO guidance below $6.22 per share.*
* Core FFO per share (Q3 2026): at or below $1.53 per share, prompting management to lower the full-year 2026 Core FFO guidance midpoint below $6.22 per share [transcript:FY2026-Q2].
* Total consolidated revenue (Q3 2026): at or below $2.349 billion according to standardized financial reporting [financials:FY2026-Q1, financials:FY2026-Q2].
* Diluted GAAP net earnings per share (Q3 2026): below $1.00 per share, tracking below the pace required for the $4.40 to $4.55 full-year guidance range [financials:FY2026-Q1, transcript:FY2026-Q2].
* Net effective same-store NOI growth (Q3 2026): below 5.25%, falling short of full-year net effective same-store guidance of 5.25% to 5.75% as leasing concessions and Southern California headwinds persist [transcript:FY2026-Q1, transcript:FY2026-Q2].
* Period-end portfolio occupancy (Q3 2026): at or below 95.3%, reversing second-quarter gains and missing the guided full-year average occupancy band of 95.25% to 95.75% [transcript:FY2026-Q1, transcript:FY2026-Q2].
* Net effective rent change on rollover (Q3 2026): below 35.0%, failing to progress toward management's full-year target approaching 40% as lease mark-to-market drops below 17% [transcript:FY2026-Q1, transcript:FY2026-Q2].
* Owned and managed development starts (Q3 2026): below $0.90 billion, leaving cumulative nine-month starts under $4.60 billion and forcing a reduction in full-year development start guidance below $5.50 billion [transcript:FY2026-Q1, transcript:FY2026-Q2].
Management credibility
Across the four quarters in the evidence base, management established a spotless record of meeting or exceeding every checkable operational and capital guidance commitment, beating or meeting 12 of 12 verifiable milestones across annual operating ranges, capital deployment targets, energy installations, and institutional capital raises. (Note: Transcript excerpts contain executive commentary and guided ranges but omit formal financial tables; headline quarterly financials are supported by standardized financial data [financials:FY2025-Q4, financials:FY2026-Q1, financials:FY2026-Q2]).
### Track Record by Sequential Call
#### FY2025 Q3 Commitments vs. FY2025 Full-Year Actuals
* **Solar and Storage Capacity Target:** On the Q3 2025 call, CFO Tim Arndt stated that with 825 megawatts of capacity installed, Prologis was "on track to deliver on our one-gigawatt goal by year-end" [transcript:FY2025-Q3]. In Q4 2025, management reported installing additional capacity to reach 1.1 gigawatts, formally achieving and surpassing the multiyear goal [transcript:FY2025-Q4]. (**Beat**)
* **Full-Year 2025 Operating Targets:** Management guided for full-year average occupancy at share of 95.0% (midpoint), rent change in the "low 50s", net effective same-store NOI growth of 4.25% to 4.75%, and owned-and-managed development starts of $2.75 billion to $3.25 billion [transcript:FY2025-Q3]. In Q4 2025, Prologis reported full-year average occupancy of exactly 95.0%, full-year net effective rent change of "more than 50%", net effective same-store NOI growth of 4.8% (hitting and slightly exceeding the top of the guided range), and development starts of $3.1 billion [transcript:FY2025-Q4]. (**Met / Beat**)
* **Full-Year 2025 Core FFO Guidance:** Guided to $5.78–$5.81 per share with net promote expense and $5.83–$5.86 per share without [transcript:FY2025-Q3]. Management delivered Q4 Core FFO of $1.44 with promote and $1.46 without, finishing the year at the top end of guidance [transcript:FY2025-Q4]. (**Met**)
#### FY2025 Q4 Commitments vs. FY2026 Q1 Actuals
* **Q1 Occupancy Cadence:** Management telegraphed a "seasonal drop in occupancy in the first quarter before rebuilding over the year" within an initial full-year average occupancy range of 94.75% to 95.75% [transcript:FY2025-Q4]. Q1 2026 occupancy landed at 95.3%, outperforming internal expectations by 20 basis points despite the seasonal dip [transcript:FY2026-Q1]. (**Met / Beat**)
* **Data Center Start Execution:** Management indicated that a "small handful of starts that feel relatively imminent" would commence in Q1 or the first half of 2026 [transcript:FY2025-Q4]. In Q1 2026, Prologis broke ground on two pre-leased data center build-to-suits totaling 350 megawatts and $1.3 billion in investment value [transcript:FY2026-Q1]. (**Met**)
* **Private Capital Vehicles:** Management committed to expanding institutional capital vehicles [transcript:FY2025-Q4], subsequently closing $2.6 billion of equity commitments across the U.S. Agility Fund, CREIT in China, and a $1.6 billion build-to-suit venture with GIC [transcript:FY2026-Q1]. (**Met**)
#### FY2026 Q1 Commitments vs. FY2026 Q2 Actuals
* **Rent Change and Mark-to-Market Cadence:** After Q1 net effective rent change dropped to 32% due to roll mix, management maintained that full-year rent change would "approach 40%" as geographic mix normalized [transcript:FY2026-Q1]. In Q2 2026, net effective rent change accelerated to 36% (and 22% cash), while the portfolio mark-to-market halted its decline and stabilized flat at 17% [transcript:FY2026-Q2]. (**Met**)
* **Occupancy Rebuilding:** Management guided that occupancy would rebuild sequentially from Q1 [transcript:FY2026-Q1]. Q2 2026 average occupancy rose 20 basis points to 95.5% [transcript:FY2026-Q2]. (**Met**)
* **Data Center Deployment Pace:** Guided to ~40% of development starts in data centers [transcript:FY2026-Q1]. In Q2 2026, Prologis started an additional 260-megawatt, $800 million data center campus, bringing year-to-date data center starts to $2.1 billion and exceeding the original full-year vertical target within six months [transcript:FY2026-Q2]. (**Beat**)
* **La Caisse Joint Venture:** Pre-announced in Q1 [transcript:FY2026-Q1], the $1.2 billion pan-European venture with La Caisse closed successfully in Q2 [transcript:FY2026-Q2]. (**Met**)
### Summary Credibility Pattern
Management has met or exceeded its checkable operating targets in 12 of 12 instances across the four quarters in the evidence base and missed zero. Guidance revisions have been exclusively upward adjustments.
### Open Commitments to Monitor
1. **Full-Year 2026 Core FFO and Earnings:** Delivering Core FFO of $6.22 to $6.30 per share (with and without promotes) and diluted GAAP EPS of $4.40 to $4.55 per share [transcript:FY2026-Q2].
2. **Same-Store NOI Growth:** Achieving net effective same-store NOI growth of 5.25% to 5.75% and cash growth of 6.75% to 7.25% for full-year 2026 [transcript:FY2026-Q2].
3. **Rollover Rent Spreads:** Delivering on the commitment for full-year net effective rent change approaching 40% [transcript:FY2026-Q1].
4. **Logistics Development Starts Acceleration:** Achieving full-year owned-and-managed starts of $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion, which requires second-half logistics starts to ramp significantly following $1.65 billion started in 1H 2026 [transcript:FY2026-Q1, transcript:FY2026-Q2].
5. **Capital Discipline on SEGRO M&A:** Managing the possible offer for SEGRO plc under the U.K. Takeover Code within stated discipline parameters ("the bar is high... we'll always be disciplined on price") without compromising the 4.7x debt-to-EBITDA balance sheet profile [transcript:FY2026-Q2].